Cox Plate 2010
It shapes as the battle between the king and queen of racing, both on and off the track. This years edition of the Cox Plate pits Bart Cummings superstar ‘So You Think’, up against the best mare in Australia ‘More Joyous’ trained by the enigmatic Gai Waterhouse.
It’s hard not to get caught up in the hype surrounding these two horses, and I'm sure the race tomorrow won’t disappoint.
Race One:7.By The Hour – 8.Chi Chi – 6.Mirror Man – 1.Aashiq
Two year old races are always ridiculously difficult to predict this early in the season, and tomorrow’s Inglis Banner is no exception. With no real trial form surrounding a few of these runners I’ve gone with a trusted two year old trainer in Clarry Conners, who trains ‘By The Hour’. The son of ‘Strada’ has trialled well twice in Sydney and should be very competitive.
Race Two:1.Ambers Waltz – 6.Attributes – 4.Follonica – 3.Zubbaya
After disappointing in her debut Melbourne run in the Edward Manifold two starts ago, ‘Ambers Waltz’ ran out of her skin to run fourth in the Thousand Guineas. She drops back dramatically in grade here and even though carries a bit of weight, is the by far the classiest horse in the race. ‘Attributes’ could be the surprise packet, after winning in Ballarat at her last start, and she certainly looks like a city galloper.
Race Three:6.That’s Not It – 2.Lone Rock – 5.Multahem – 9.Blink
The good training form of Matt Ellerton and Simon Zahra should continue with developing galloper ‘That’s Not It’. After winning a competitive maiden convincingly two starts back, he ran a super race when off the speed in a leader controlled race at Caulfield. ‘Lone Rock’ has won at the track two starts back and it will pay to forget his last start when he pulled up with an atrial fibrillation.
Race Four:5. Poor Judge – 4.La Rocket – 1.Rock Kingdom – 12.Firebolt
In one of the most competitive events of the day, 13 evenly rated horses run in the Group 2 Crystal Mile. ‘Poor Judge’ ran an excellent race in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap two weeks ago, and after working hard near the speed he managed to hold on for third behind ‘More Joyous’. I’m expecting only improvement from this consistent galloper, and should be in the finish. La Rocket also ran a cheeky race in the Toorak, and gets back to his favourite track.
Race Five:6.Black Caviar – 5.Melito – 1.Eagle Falls - 3.True Persuasion
With the withdrawal of top liner ‘Hay List’, the Schweppes Stakes has lost some of its shimmer, however a battle of the Group 1 mares is sure to excite. ‘Black Caviar’ rates alongside Hay List in the upper echelon of Australian sprinters, and should confirm her status tomorrow. From Barrier 2 she should sit just behind the speed, and prove to be to strong for another Group 1 winner in ‘Melito’. ‘Eagle Falls’ should improve 2nd up and loves the track.
Race Six:4.Smokin’ Joey – 1.Hollowlea – 3.Shadows In The Sun – 5.Bullbars
In what was a slowly run Caulfield Guineas, ‘Smokin’ Joey’ looked to be one of the few horses to be making ground. The extra distance should be a big plus for the colt, with the only worry being a repeat of the slow tempo. ‘Hollowlea’ won at this track two starts back, and forget he went around in the Guineas. ‘Shadows In The Sun’ jumps in class but could be a big improver.
Race Seven:2.Precedence – 6.Master O’Reilly – 12.My Bentley – 5.Above Average
To keep the Melbourne Cup dream alive, ‘Precedence’ will have to win tomorrow’s staying test in authoritative fashion. I expect this to be the case after winning the JRA Cup and running a close third behind ‘Linton’ at Caulfield. ‘Master O’Reilly’ hasn’t won for an eon, but this looks his easiest race for a while, and is thrown in at the weights, expect improvement. ‘My Bentley’ looks an improving stayer.
Race Eight:1.Zipping – 5.So You Think – 6.Shoot Out – 7.Trusting
This looks to be the champion making race for Bart Cummings ‘So You Think’. However, if there is a chink in the armour, the one horse to expose this weakness looks to be the Iron horse ‘Zipping’.
Going around in his fourth Cox Plate, Zipping looks to of only improved with age and could go two better than his 3rd last year. After winning the Australian Cup and the Turnbull Stakes at his last two Weight For Age 2000m runs, I expect Nick Hall to make this into a true staying test, and break So You Think’s Heart.
I’m happy to be wrong and watch Bart’s horse become a champion, but stranger things certainly have happened in racing.
Race Nine:6.Belscenica – 1.Katie Lee – 4.Ghostmilk – 2.Lady Lynette
The last race on the card also proves to be the toughest for the with a high class Group 3 mares. ‘Katie Lee’ has won numerous Group 1 races in New Zealand and should be too classy; however I’m not willing to take a risk on unexposed form. ‘Belscenica’ looks an excellent each way option getting back to her favoured track and distance, and forget she went around last start. ‘Ghostmilk’ and ‘Lady Lynette’ are always right in the finish in these races.
Best Bet: Race 7 No.2 Precedence
Best Roughie: Race 9 No.6 Belscenica, Race 8 No.1 Zipping
Quaddie:
1,3,4,5,10/2,6/1,5/1,2,4,6,8
$100 for 100%
