Melbourne Cup Day

Race One
1.Bel Franc - 16. Win For Layla - 3.Chinchilla - 11.Military Grace

In a tough two year old race, 'Bel Franc' looks to have the best form of the non debutants, however follow any market moves for the unraced brigade.

Race Two
2.Vintedge - 4.Royal Commands - 3.Aloha - 4.Ky's The Limit

'Vintedge' might have a tough time from barrier 16, but is she gains some cover, she will prove hard to hold out. 'Royal Commands' showed a real turn of foot at her last start, and will prove to be a real danger.

Race Three
13.Irazu - 7.I'm Imposing - 17.Gallant Lady - 5.Miles Above

'I'm Imposing' was ultra impressive in his first Australian run, but I'm willing to risk him coming to Flemington second up. 'Irazu' has been running on extremely well without winning, and the 2800m should suit perfectly. 'Gallant Lady' should run a cheeky race out in front.

Race Four
14. Pagan Princess - 8.Flying Tessie - 13.Jersey Lily - 1.Montana Flyer

A host of chances line up in a typically tough mares race, and hopefully there is some value about 'Pagan Princess'. After running consistently in tough Group races over the winter, she looks to of found a winnable race fresh from a break. 'Flying Tessie' was just beaten at her last start, and won on this day last year.

Race Five
14.Light Express - 6.Trudeau - 11.Season Of Fortune

After winning at this distance last start, 'Spurcific' should again be right in the finish. She is a proven wet track filly, and has run well down 'the straight' previously.[SCRATCHED] The unraced pair of 'Light Express' and 'Season Of Fortune' could suprise.

Race Six
9.Dance Of The Ocean - 3.Alotta Spur - 14.Booklet - 6.Palomares

At her first run since coming to Melbourne, 'Dance Of The Ocean' flew home to grab third behind ultra impressive 'Solar Charged' at Caulfield. The extra 200m should suit perfectly, and she will get the run of the race from barrier 7. 'Alotta Spur' and 'Palomares' look improving types, and will be right in the finish.

Race Seven
SEE PREVIEW BELOW

Race Eight
10.Hidden Wonder - 12.Tagus - 6.Leica Larrikin - 2.Rock Kingdom

Consistent mare 'Hidden Wonder' has certainly has hit a purple patch. After running fourth in the Epsom Handicap, and winning against her own sex last time out, she looks to be the winner. 'Tagus' has run on well at his last two starts, and will be around the placings.

Race Nine
6.True Persuasion - 16.Uxorious - 11.Kallogg

Frustrating sprinter 'The Handsome One' looked like he was back to his best in a recent trial, and will be one to follow in the future. If he doesn't get cluttered up from barrier 2, the lightly raced gelding will be flashing home late.[SCRATCHED] 'True Persuasion' has the best form lines out of the field, and will be very hard to get past.

Race Ten
4.Amaethon - 5.Launay - 13.Lexcen - 3.Overtake

Another tough race to end another tough day. 'Amaethon' has been nothing but consistent throughout her short career, and looks a safe bet to end on. She was game behind 'Berringama' at Caulfield last start and will take some running down. 'Launay' has been frustrating for punters, but looks to of found a suitable race.

Best Bet: Race 6 No 9 Dance Of The Ocean

Best Roughie: Race 3 No 13 Irazu, Race 7 No 12 Harris Tweed

Quaddie
3,5,11,12,15,19,23/6,10,12/6,11,16,18/4,5,13,16
$100 for 29.76%

Melbourne Cup 2010

Race 7 Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m

12.Harris Tweed - 11.Descarado - 19.Holberg - 15.Monaco Consul

The 150th running of The Melbourne Cup will this year not just be 'The race that stops a nation' but, 'The race that stops the world'.

With nine international horses lining up against the best Australia has to offer, including possibly the best horse in the last 20 years, this magnificent field will not disappoint.

After receiving 64mm of rain since midday on Saturday, the Flemington track looks to of improved dramatically, but a wet cup will still be a major possiblilty. This will definitely be a big factor into determining the winner.

I believe this years Caulfield Cup is a great form reference for the Melbourne Cup, and the trifecta from that race will be right in the finish once again.

'Harris Tweed' ran second in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup at his last start and gets 1.5kg from the winner. He is a proven stayer, running third in this years Sydney Cup, and the wet track will only help the son of 'Montjeu'. From barrier 13, Brad Rawiller should give the gelding a perfect ride, and after settling better than midfield, will be hard to run down.

The winner of the Caulfield Cup 'Descarado' rises in weight after his strong win, and was sharpened up in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. If the track gets any more rain, he is a certain place runner. Barrier 1 might be the only concern if he doesn't fly the gates, but he will settle in the first half of the field and look the winner at some point during the race.

Saeed Bin Suroor is still seeking his first Melbourne Cup, and I believe he has a great hope in the lightly raced 'Holberg'. His only try at the distance reaped a convincing win, and with arguably the best jockey in the world riding him, he will be in it for a long way. The wet weather might be his only concern.

'Monaco Consul', 'Once Were Wild' and 'Illustrious Blue' are a must in Trifectas and First Fours.

'So You Think' could prove to be the greatest horse in living memory, but I am doubting his ability in a true staying test, and the short odds aren't appealing.

If you do win any money from my Melbourne Cup tips, please donate to my Movember, Thankyou.

Derby Day 2010

Derby Day 30/10/10

Australia’s best day of racing for the year is always Derby Day, and tomorrow’s star packed card certainly doesn’t disappoint. The only thing that could possibly put a dampener on the celebrations looks to be the weather.

With a deluge expected on Saturday, some of the races might seem more fitted to Ian Thorpe than to a horse, but with the weather being the only concern, Flemington’s fabulous carnival should get underway in style.

Race One
1.Skilled – 6.Kookaburras – 2.Mr. Chard – 4.Ace Acosta

This looks the perfect race for Darley to kick off a big Derby Day, with two top chances in the Carbine Club Stakes. ‘Skilled’ looked a little unfit at his last run, but still battled on to run 2nd in a listed race at Caulfield.He should strip fitter for the run and stepping up to the mile should suit perfectly. ‘Kookaburras’ looks to be an improving type, and should be right in the finish. A very even race to start the day.

Race Two
5.Linton – 9.Purple – 12. Maluckyday – 11.Cedarberg

With almost every horse in the race battling for the last Melbourne Cup spot, I’m sure that this years Lexus Stakes should be as competitive as ever. Lloyd Williams’ young stayer ‘Linton’ should confirm himself as a real Melbourne Cup chance with a win tomorrow. After winning impressively at his last start, and improving every time he steps up in distance, this looks a perfect race. ‘Purple’ has been frustrating for punters, and will again prove so tomorrow. ‘Maluckday’ and ‘Cedarberg’ are stayers on the improve.

Race Three
7.Brazilian Pulse – 4.Kittens – 1.Shamrocker – 3.Dizlago

Lightly raced ‘Brazilian Pulse’ should continue on her way to the VRC Oaks with a win in tomorrow’s Wakeful Stakes. After working forward from her wide draw in the Thousand Guineas, she battled on gamely for close up 3rd. The extra distance and the rain forecasted look to hold no problems for her. ‘Kittens’ is on the improve, and getting to a big track like Flemington should suit her perfectly. ‘Shamrocker’ will be right around the mark.

Race Four
10.Solar Charged – 4.Soul – 1.Star Witness – 2.Pressday

After not handling the Melbourne way of going at her first start, top filly ‘Solar Charged’ bounced back with a dominant win at Caulfield. This race looks much tougher, but the 'Straight Six' should suit her, and she could run the back markers of their legs. ‘Soul’ is as consistent as they come, and will be right around the finish. If they are swooping expect a big race from both ‘Star Witness’ and ‘Pressday’.


Race Five
1.Shocking – 6.So You Think – 4.Ginga Dude – 8.Shoot Out

In the final Melbourne Cup warm up, I’m expecting a big race from ‘Shocking’ who should confirm his Melbourne Cup favouritism. He may not be winning the race, but a first three finish is a certainty. Duel Cox Plate winner and superstar ‘So You Think’ is an obvious favourite, and will be the one to beat again. ‘Ginga Dude’ should relish the soft conditions, and may lead easily, I expect a cheeky race. Watch for ‘Shoot Out’ and ‘C’est Le Guerre’ to be storming home late.

Race Six
4.Smokin’ Joey – 1.Retrieve – 3.Lion Tamer – 9.Digital Fortress

I may say this a lot but; if you forget ‘Smokin’ Joey’ went around last start, he would definitely be challenging for favouritism in the Derby. After swallowing his tongue at Moonee Valley, the young stayer never had a chance, and I'll look for a huge improvement in tomorrow’s big race. The extra distance should hold no problems for the colt, and the wet ground may play into his favour.

On paper the Derby looks to be a two horse race, but I think the 2500m may test a few of the favourites, especially in the expected wet conditions. ‘Retrieve’ may be having his eighth start this preparation but you cannot fault his form. His breeding says he’ll get the distance so I expect him to be in the finish. ‘Lion Tamer’ will definitely relish the wet and the extra ground and should fill a first four position.

Race Seven
2.Typhoon Tracy – 12.Yosei – 7.Katie Lee – 6.Sacred Choice

By this time in the day, the wet weather should have well and truly settled in, but that won’t dampen Australia’s best middle distance mare’s hopes. ‘Typhoon Tracy’ has been running well in elite Weight For Age company, and after originally targeting the Cox Plate, the Group 1 Myer Classic appeared a much easier and better option. She won this race easily last year in similar circumstances, and I expect much of the same this time around. ‘Yosei’ seems the logical threat in the race, carrying only 49.5 kg, and the duel Group 1 winner will be strong to the line.

Race Eight
6.Shellscrape – 3.Catapulted – 5.Swift Alliance – 8.Set For Fame

In a typically tough straight race, consistent Group 1 performer ‘Shellscrape’ gets the nod ahead of five or six other top chances. After resuming well behind super mare ‘Hot Danish’ first up, the 1200m at Flemington with the expected rain looks to fit him perfectly. Consistent sprinter ‘Catapulted’ doesn’t have ‘Hay List’ to contend with here and should again be in the finish. Expect a big race fresh from ‘Swift Alliance’.

Race Nine
10. Demerit – 2. Albert The Fat – 1.Dao Dao– 6.Poor Judge

Lightly raced ‘Demerit’ should provide book end wins for Darley on what looks a tough race to end the day. After looking defeated a long way from home first up, Demerit flashed home to grab 4th, and should now be ready to win. Group 1 winner ‘Albert The Fat’ has never missed a place second up, and forget he went around first up after pulling up sore. ‘Dao Dao’ looks to have a slight class edge, but if the track is getting really Heavy by the end of the day, he may be a risk.

Best Bet: Race 1 No 1 Skilled

Best Roughie: Race 4 No 10 Solar Charged, Race 5 No 1 Shocking

Quaddie:
1,3,4,5,9/2,12/3,5,6,8/1,2,6,10,12
$100 for 50%

'Playwright' looks to bounce back

Former Australian Guineas placegetter ‘Playwright’ looks to add to his country cups collection today in the Listed Bendigo Cup.

After impressively winning the Benalla Cup two starts back, Playwright failed at his last outing on a heavy track in the Group 3 David Jones Cup at Caulfield.

Trainer Stephen Richards expects Playwright to bounce back today, where he carries the same weight today as in his Benalla Cup win.

“We came back with a plan to run in him in the country cups this time around and he's worked his way up nicely”, Richards said.

“His only blemish this time around was that run at Caulfield. Back on a better track and drawn a good gate he's going to look the winner at some stage”.

Playwright has drawn barrier 1 in today’s feature, and will look to take the lead early, as he has done in his recent racing and has been most effective.

The 2200m should hold no problems for the gelding; however at his last run at the distance, he was a nine length 5th to ‘Growl’ in the Group 3 Hobart Cup.

Playwright is currently an $11 chance for the Cup, with Mick Kent’s galloper ‘My Bentley’ heading the market at $3.80.

Myer Classic suits Palacio

Talented but frustrating mare ‘Palacio De Cristal’ has her best chance at securing her maiden Group 1 victory in the Myer Classic for fillies and mares on Derby Day.

The five year old has had five attempts in Group 1 company with her best result a 3rd in the Coolmore Classic won by ‘Alverta’ at Rosehill in April.

Trainer Graham Begg is looking forward to heading back to Flemington, where she has won impressively before.

"She loves the big stretches at Flemington, she's two for two there", Begg said.

The race has been in Begg's sights all preparation and he is sure she will run exceedingly well.

"She just needs to get into the right race and get the breaks going her way".

Dwayne Dunn will be aboard in the Myer and is unbeaten on the fast-finishing mare having only partnered her in her two Flemington appearances.

With hot rivals such as ‘Typhoon Tracy’ and ‘Hot Danish’ in the race, it is far from a formality, but it certainly wouldn’t surprise to see her right in the finish.

Begg said there was also a good chance Palacio De Cristal would back up a week later in the Emirates Stakes over the same course and distance.