Derby Day 2010

Derby Day 30/10/10

Australia’s best day of racing for the year is always Derby Day, and tomorrow’s star packed card certainly doesn’t disappoint. The only thing that could possibly put a dampener on the celebrations looks to be the weather.

With a deluge expected on Saturday, some of the races might seem more fitted to Ian Thorpe than to a horse, but with the weather being the only concern, Flemington’s fabulous carnival should get underway in style.

Race One
1.Skilled – 6.Kookaburras – 2.Mr. Chard – 4.Ace Acosta

This looks the perfect race for Darley to kick off a big Derby Day, with two top chances in the Carbine Club Stakes. ‘Skilled’ looked a little unfit at his last run, but still battled on to run 2nd in a listed race at Caulfield.He should strip fitter for the run and stepping up to the mile should suit perfectly. ‘Kookaburras’ looks to be an improving type, and should be right in the finish. A very even race to start the day.

Race Two
5.Linton – 9.Purple – 12. Maluckyday – 11.Cedarberg

With almost every horse in the race battling for the last Melbourne Cup spot, I’m sure that this years Lexus Stakes should be as competitive as ever. Lloyd Williams’ young stayer ‘Linton’ should confirm himself as a real Melbourne Cup chance with a win tomorrow. After winning impressively at his last start, and improving every time he steps up in distance, this looks a perfect race. ‘Purple’ has been frustrating for punters, and will again prove so tomorrow. ‘Maluckday’ and ‘Cedarberg’ are stayers on the improve.

Race Three
7.Brazilian Pulse – 4.Kittens – 1.Shamrocker – 3.Dizlago

Lightly raced ‘Brazilian Pulse’ should continue on her way to the VRC Oaks with a win in tomorrow’s Wakeful Stakes. After working forward from her wide draw in the Thousand Guineas, she battled on gamely for close up 3rd. The extra distance and the rain forecasted look to hold no problems for her. ‘Kittens’ is on the improve, and getting to a big track like Flemington should suit her perfectly. ‘Shamrocker’ will be right around the mark.

Race Four
10.Solar Charged – 4.Soul – 1.Star Witness – 2.Pressday

After not handling the Melbourne way of going at her first start, top filly ‘Solar Charged’ bounced back with a dominant win at Caulfield. This race looks much tougher, but the 'Straight Six' should suit her, and she could run the back markers of their legs. ‘Soul’ is as consistent as they come, and will be right around the finish. If they are swooping expect a big race from both ‘Star Witness’ and ‘Pressday’.


Race Five
1.Shocking – 6.So You Think – 4.Ginga Dude – 8.Shoot Out

In the final Melbourne Cup warm up, I’m expecting a big race from ‘Shocking’ who should confirm his Melbourne Cup favouritism. He may not be winning the race, but a first three finish is a certainty. Duel Cox Plate winner and superstar ‘So You Think’ is an obvious favourite, and will be the one to beat again. ‘Ginga Dude’ should relish the soft conditions, and may lead easily, I expect a cheeky race. Watch for ‘Shoot Out’ and ‘C’est Le Guerre’ to be storming home late.

Race Six
4.Smokin’ Joey – 1.Retrieve – 3.Lion Tamer – 9.Digital Fortress

I may say this a lot but; if you forget ‘Smokin’ Joey’ went around last start, he would definitely be challenging for favouritism in the Derby. After swallowing his tongue at Moonee Valley, the young stayer never had a chance, and I'll look for a huge improvement in tomorrow’s big race. The extra distance should hold no problems for the colt, and the wet ground may play into his favour.

On paper the Derby looks to be a two horse race, but I think the 2500m may test a few of the favourites, especially in the expected wet conditions. ‘Retrieve’ may be having his eighth start this preparation but you cannot fault his form. His breeding says he’ll get the distance so I expect him to be in the finish. ‘Lion Tamer’ will definitely relish the wet and the extra ground and should fill a first four position.

Race Seven
2.Typhoon Tracy – 12.Yosei – 7.Katie Lee – 6.Sacred Choice

By this time in the day, the wet weather should have well and truly settled in, but that won’t dampen Australia’s best middle distance mare’s hopes. ‘Typhoon Tracy’ has been running well in elite Weight For Age company, and after originally targeting the Cox Plate, the Group 1 Myer Classic appeared a much easier and better option. She won this race easily last year in similar circumstances, and I expect much of the same this time around. ‘Yosei’ seems the logical threat in the race, carrying only 49.5 kg, and the duel Group 1 winner will be strong to the line.

Race Eight
6.Shellscrape – 3.Catapulted – 5.Swift Alliance – 8.Set For Fame

In a typically tough straight race, consistent Group 1 performer ‘Shellscrape’ gets the nod ahead of five or six other top chances. After resuming well behind super mare ‘Hot Danish’ first up, the 1200m at Flemington with the expected rain looks to fit him perfectly. Consistent sprinter ‘Catapulted’ doesn’t have ‘Hay List’ to contend with here and should again be in the finish. Expect a big race fresh from ‘Swift Alliance’.

Race Nine
10. Demerit – 2. Albert The Fat – 1.Dao Dao– 6.Poor Judge

Lightly raced ‘Demerit’ should provide book end wins for Darley on what looks a tough race to end the day. After looking defeated a long way from home first up, Demerit flashed home to grab 4th, and should now be ready to win. Group 1 winner ‘Albert The Fat’ has never missed a place second up, and forget he went around first up after pulling up sore. ‘Dao Dao’ looks to have a slight class edge, but if the track is getting really Heavy by the end of the day, he may be a risk.

Best Bet: Race 1 No 1 Skilled

Best Roughie: Race 4 No 10 Solar Charged, Race 5 No 1 Shocking

Quaddie:
1,3,4,5,9/2,12/3,5,6,8/1,2,6,10,12
$100 for 50%