October Results 2012

-->-->-->

October Results (S-TAB) - 87 Races

Win %:                                         35.63%           

Average Win Price:                     $4.24  

Profit %:                                      50.92%   ($443 Profit for a $10 Win bet)

Place %:                                      57.5% 

Average Place Price:                  $1.87

Each Way Profit:                        29.18%    ($253.90 Profit for a $5 Each Way bet)

Win % in all tips:                        77.01%

Average Win Price in all tips:    $4.50   

Overall a very good month for Talkinturf. A few decent double figure winners were great in boosting our figures for October, so snagging a few over Cup week would be a big bonus for November.

Thanks to all for following, and hopefully you continue your support over the biggest week in Australian racing. 

Bendigo Cup 2012

Bendigo Cup

Race One

7.Loose Lion – 4.Star O’Reilly – 3.Pacarc – 1.Audino

Race Two

8.Sharnee Rose – 4.Sovereign State – 1.Copper Vision - 7.Oakford Lass

Race Three

3.Divine Moon – 7.Meilucca – 11.Wimba – 1.Arkie The Red

Race Four

2.A Certain Hope – 9.Magnus Reign – 4.Quartermain – 8.Jiggle It

Race Five

7.Muchos Respectos – 2.Lone Star – 8.Terpsichore – 5.Umadeeus

Race Six

7.Scottish Queen – 11.Family Portrait – 6.Two Sugars – 12.Fringed

Race Seven

7.Kimurasun – 13.Conferre – 1.Dubosc – 10.Rhiannon’s Joy

Race Eight

11.Practiced – 9.Puissance De Lune – 3.Fiumicino – 6.Sky Raider

Race Nine

5.Good Value – 2.Berringama – 7.Kutchinsky - 10.From The Vault

Race Ten

7.Oriental Ruby – 6.Kasmaher – 11.Hold For Applause - 2.Impulsive Dream

Cox Plate 2012

Cox Plate 2012

Race One

4.Crack A Roadie – 8.Shamus Award – 1.Direct Charge – 12.Fantome Gris

Race Two

8.Bigelow – 1.Kulgrinda – 9.I Get Around – 3.Obsisdian Dragon

Race Three

3.Midnight Martini – 1.Extra Zero – 7.Mourinho – 4.Texan Warney

Race Four

2.Hidden Warrior – 7.Cavalry Rose – 4.Haussmann – 6.Essay Raider

Race Five

1.It’s A Dundeel – 3.If I Could – 4.Super Cool – 7.Nisos

By now I'm expecting your wallets to be fat and the champagne to be flowing. It's at this time you DO NOT and I repeat DO NOT empty your wallet on to the $1.24 hot shot in this race, or the $1.50 "Good Thing" at St Arnaud... although I hear Pacino is a big show in the St Arnaud Cup later in the day. Any-who, It’s A Dundeel IS a potential superstar who unleashed an almighty finishing burst to down Cox Plate fancy Proisir last start. As mentioned he’ll jump at $1.24 (and deservedly), so rather than unloading, play around in exotics to gain any value out of the race. I've always liked the look of If I Could; he’s a big rangy long striding horse and will be hitting the line hard. The other Kavanagh runner Super Cool was extremely unlucky last start and with a bit of luck in running, he may push the favourite right to the line.

Race Six

9.Midas Touch – 4.Ironstein – 1.Unusual  Suspect - 2.Precedence

Trying out a theory.. Whenever I say "This is a seemingly impossible edition of (Insert race name)" I seem to pick the winner.. So let's give it a go: This is a seemingly impossible edition of the Moonee Valley Cup, a very even bunch of stayers all looking to wedge their way into that race people seem to talk about a bit. Lloyd Williams has his band of Import stayers in fine fettle heading on to the first Tuesday in November. Midas Touch has been fairly disappointing since coming to Australia, but his last start performance may be an indicator of things to come. He should sit on what seems a fairly steady tempo and make it a true staying test from the 800 on wards  Expect a flock of horses including Ironstein, Moudre, Unusual Suspect and Precedence to be closing hard late. A load up leg in the Quaddie if there ever was one.

Race Seven

6.Ambidexter – 1.Rangirangdoo – 7.Silent Achiever – 4.Illo

Always had time for Ambidexter and this race looks to suit perfectly. He has always shown plenty of class, and was a squirrel’s mustache away from winning the Group 1 Epsom Handicap at his last start. After a nice cosy run on the speed courtesy of Spacecraft, he will be very hard to hold out. Rangirangdoo was very  disappointing in the Epsom last start. I’m not sure if old age is starting to get the best of him,and if he doesn't  bounce back here at the Valley, it may be off to the retirement village. Silent Achiever is a classy mare from the land of Chris Cairns, and mixed it here with our best 3 year old's in the autumn. Definitely not the worst!   

Race Eight - Cox Plate

4.Green Moon – 10.More Joyous – 8.Ethiopia – 12.Pierro

The 2012 Cox Plate looks to have it all. With top class 3 year old's mixing it with the big boys, Gai and Singo at each other’s throats over glamour mare More Joyous and Bossy talking about Ocean Park as if he’s unbeatable, it’s been a Newspapers dream. With all these stories flooding our minds however, Green Moon seems to have flown under the radar… but as Craig Williams put it ‘You wouldn't want to go to war with any other horse’. Green Moon looks bomb proof. He is almost impeccable at 2000m, will position up just behind what looks to be a hot tempo and has the toughness to wear down his lightly weighted rivals. If there is a challenge it may be from Singo’s golden girl More Joyous. She has had an ideal preparation, and I didn't think her Toorak run was all that bad. If she can get across from gate 11 without too many hassles, expect her to be right in the finish. Ethiopia is a must include in all multiples and Quaddies. He may be a big baby, but has an enormous finishing burst, and with clear running he will be a huge show in the final 100m.

Race Nine

3.Zurella – 1.Spirit Song  - 6.Pretty Pins – 5.Star Of Giselle

Without a number 10 in the last, doing a preview seems pointless… but I’ll do it anyway.. can’t go disappointing my tens upon tens of fans! Zurella has had an unusual campaign since winning the Group 2 Let’s Elope first up (I’m sure Shaun Ritchie knows what he’s doing, but I have my doubts at times).She has always shown plenty of class in her short career and a testing mile should suit her perfectly. Spirit Song is as consistent as they come and will certainly be finishing hard late... the 59KG is a slight worry, but I’d be surprised if she doesn’t run top 4. Pretty Pins a must for all exotics, she still hasn't been able to draw a decent barrier, but with a little luck, she’ll be right in the finish.

QUADDIE:
1.2.4.5.7.8.9.11
1.2.4.6.7
1.4.5.8.10.11.12
1.3.6
$50 for 5.95%

Geelong Cup 2012

Geelong Cup

Race One
6.Run Diego - 2.Spatha - 3.Testaguy - 4.Wannajewel

Race Two
9.Gerontius - 3.That's The Way - 4.Prior - 11.Purrplexed

Race Three
5.Garud - 3.Altonio - 1.Keep Control - 9.Amber Grey

Race Four
1.Under The Eiffel - 8.Dash For Viz - 6.From The Terrace - 4.Sadalbari

Race Five
14.Zuckerberg - 15.Tatt's Girl - 4.Hammer Time - 13.Felidea

Race Six
4.Solemn - 1.Road Trippin - 6.Correggio - 2.Escado

Race Seven - Geelong Cup
4.Gatewood - 1.Maluckyday - 3.Brigantin - 5.Exceptionally

Race Eight
10.Honey Flower - 5.Florets - 1.Aerobatics - 3.Koonoomoo

Race Nine
2.New York - 5.Sabres - 8.Eight Cards - 1.Studley Park

Caulfield Cup 2012

Caulfield Cup Day 2012

Race One
7.Zoria - 5.A Time For Julia- 8.Triquetra - 4.Thunder Rain

Race Two
5.Magnier - 9.Al Aneed - 1.Pronto Pronto - 8.Divine Moon

Race Three
1.Kabayan - 2.Jimando - 5.Hvasstan - 4.Honorius

Race Four
3.Cameo - 12.Summerbliss - 2.Transonic - 7.Kate

Race Five
5.King's Rose - 4.Galah - 9.Shadowfax - 7.Happy Zero

Quality race to kick off the Big 6. There is a $500 000 jackpot added, so I will certainly be dipping into the pocket come 2.00pm. King's Rose is a high quality sprinter/miler and after a huge run first up I expect her to win before heading onto bigger races at Flemington. Galah has plenty of talent but may prefer a wider track like Flemington.. either way he will be storming home late. Shadowfax is more of a head case than me, but (as with me) when he's on his A-game, he's very hard to beat... actually come to think of it, I've never been hard to beat in any sport really... end comparison. Happy Zero is proven at the highest level and I expect a big showing 2nd up.

Race Six
7.Howmuchdoyouloveme - 3.Thankgodyou'rehere - 1.Mid Summer Music - 5.Curtana

I feel sorry for Greg Miles having to call the final 200m of this race if in fact these are the three in front..
Much like this girl I know.. Howmuchdoyouloveme has an abundance of potential.. but I haven't seen enough of her to make up my mind whether she is worth investing my money into. I couldn't help but be impressed after he ran a 1.08.72 over the 1200m at his last start, but first up at Caulfield, he may be vulnerable. Thankgodyou'rehere ran a terrific race at the Valley first up, and with natural improvement, he should be right in the finish. Mid Summer Music is consistent and proven at the top level, if she is on song she will be rattling down the outside in the last 200.

Race Seven
5.Lightinthenight - 10.Proliferate - 4.Shewan - 2.Bagman

Tough race to kick of the Quaddie, but typical of the day really. Lightinthenite was super impressive last start in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap running a gallant 4th behind Fat Al. He has always shown a huge amount of talent, and will get a soft run from barrier 2. This is a big bonus as the 2000m will be a test, especially first try at the trip. I've always had a soft spot for Proliferate, as he has always shown a great deal of promise. Look for him to peak 3rd up, and the 2000 is right up his alley. Shewan and Bagman are both ever consistent and will be right in the finish.

Race Eight - CAULFIELD CUP
12.Lights Of Heaven - 7.Southern Speed - 10.My Quest For Peace - 13.Secret Admirer

A truly vintage edition of the Caulfield Cup. With 12 individual Group 1 winners in the field, I am expecting a world class staying handicap. The internationals always prove their class when it comes to our Cups, but with the race that stops a nation only two weeks away, penalties will want to be avoided. (Bank on slashing runs from two of the internationals who "found trouble in the straight to run a strong 3rd/4th/5th" ..I'm looking at you My Quest For Peace.) Lights Of Heaven seemingly ticks all the boxes; She has drawn perfectly, is unbeaten at 2000m+ and carries a mere 53KG. If she runs to her full potential (which is always tough with mares), whoever beats her wins the Cup. Last years winner Southern Speed has been hot and cold this campaign, but expect her to bounce back on the big stage. Nash Rawiller should give her a nice run just off the hot speed and she will be strong to the line. Secret Admirer hasn't got form beyond 1600m, but on class alone she definitely must be put into the mix. Zabeelionaire, Sneak A Peek and December Draw must for Quaddies/Trifectas etc.

Race Nine
5.Raspberries - 1.Mosheen - 12.Lucky Penny - 2.Streama

Apart from the Cup, this looks the hardest race of the day. Willing to take a risk and back against super mare Mosheen here; She hasn't been that impressive this campaign, and although a winner last start, I think Raspberries definitely has more upside. Raspberries always runs super second up and attacks the line with plenty of gusto. We'll have our hearts in our mouths for the last 100 as she doesn't tend to win by much! Lucky Penny is a lightly raced improving type and Streama has plenty of class. Definitely don't leave out Red Tracer and my girl Soft Sand of your Quaddies.

Race Ten
11.Tres Vite - 3.Mrs Onassis - 1.Serene Star - 12.Sweet Little Lies

Great way to end the day with another tough race; but the tougher the race, the better the odds!!! Tres Vite was disappointing as odds-on favourite last start. The Price stable has huge wraps on the mare, and I'm willing to trust their judgement. The slight step up in distance should suit and is drawn to put herself into the race. Mrs Onassis has been nothing but impressive so far this campaign and will be right in the finish once again. My only concern is barrier 2 this late in the day, but as long as she jumps well, you will get a good sight for your money. Serene Star just keeps winning, but with 58KG on her back and now jumping from barrier 14 this is a big test. Sweet Little Lies is super quick and lightly raced so is a must for exotics.. Flash Of Doubt and Glows certainly not the worst. (And #10 City Of Song.. you know why)

Caulfield Thousand Guineas Day

Caulfield – Thousand Guineas Day

Race One

1.Isabella Snowflake – 6.Sistine Demon – 3.Get Pronto – 5.Rocky Realm

Race Two

4.Northern Lyric – 1.Kuroshio – 10.La Bella Blue – 5.Overreach

Race Three

6.Super Cool – 3.Dominant – 5.Liberty Rock - 9.Saint Or Sinner

Race Four

*8.Tribal Rock – 5.Sertorius – 3.Lord Wimble – 1.The Wingman

Race Five

11.Sharnee Rose – 10.Specter – 8.Petman – 3.Cascabel

Sharnee Rose has turned into the girlfriend that all your mates hate. You love her and keep spending all your hard earned money on trying to turn it around.. but every two weeks she breaks your heart! In saying this, I'm giving her one last try, but after this, I swear that's it! If she does indeed run second, Specter has a load of talent and a huge turn of foot. If the pace is on, watch for him to be closing hard along with the old boy Cascabel.

Race Six - Thousand Guineas

8.Commanding Jewel – 9.Molto Bene – 3.Lady Of Harrods – 12.Stella Lante

I have no real faith in my selections for this years edition of the Caulfield 1000 Guineas. It seems a very even and talented bunch of fillies, and in my opinion only a few of the runners can't win. In saying that, Commanding Jewel, Molto Bene and Lady Of Harrods have proven to be top class and all have handled the sometimes difficult Caulfield track (big knocks on the Sydney pair). Commanding Jewel will certainly relish from her first run at the mile and will get the gun run from barrier 7. Let's hope for Ollie's sake she gets up!

Race Seven

5.Star Of Giselle – 6.Sussuro – 2.Oasis Bloom – 8.Pretty Pins

The Quaddie doesn't get any easier in Race 7 with a typical impossible mares race. Star Of Giselle has been super in her two runs so far this campaign and will appreciate the rise in distance. The price might be a little short, so tread carefully. Always had a soft spot fort Sussuro (another extremely frustrating horse to follow), but she always attacks the line with plenty of gusto. Oasis Bloom could be anything, but will need plenty of galloping room, so I'm willing to take the risk at the price.

Race Eight

10.Practiced – 14.Picture Editor – 2.Menados – 7.Cry In Awe

Practiced was not the punters friend losing at the prohibitive odds of $1.40 last start, so lets hope he gets a little back for us in the last! He's always looked like a truly talented 2400m horse, so I find it strange they've kept him at the 2000, but without any superstars in the field, he'll definitely be right in the finish. (Also he's #10 and as you know, always back the #10 in the last.. thanks Jared). Picture Editor may be scratched for a race on Saturday, but if he goes around is a definite for multiples. Menados is only lightly raced, and the step up to the 2000m should see him bouncing back into form after being slightly disappointing at Flemington last start.

Caulfield Guineas Day 2012

CAULFIELD

Race One

3.Speediness – 11.Instinction – 7.Dusty Star – 9.Spacecraft

Race Two

10.Snitzerland – 5.Lankan Rupee – 1.Sizzling – 3.Fire Thunderbolt

Race Three

5.Elite Elle – 8.Saturn Rock – 6.Formidable - 7.Clinking

Race Four

*1.Buffering – 5.Golden Archer – 4.Pampelonne – 2.Temple Of Boom

With Black Caviar missing for the Spring, Buffering takes over the best sprinter in Australia mantle. He handles all going, and after a solid win when the 1200 didn't suit, looks perfectly placed here. Golden Archer seems the only danger but will find it tough from barrier 10, and appears to be a step below in class.

Race Five

6.Ocean Park – 7.Sabrage – 5.Sanagas - 2.Sincero

Ocean Park was super impressive winning his last start in a Group 1 at this track only two weeks ago. The withdrawl of WFA star Manighar means a similar performance seemingly has him over the line. However! With a small field and a lack of pace, the $1.60 is a big no-no. Maybe play around the exotics and expect big showings from the so far disappointing Sabrage and Sanagas. With more fuel in the legs they could be the knock-outs.

Race Six

1.More Joyous – 3.Glass Harmonium – 7.Solzhenitsyn – 2.King Mufhasa

Not a vintage edition of the Group 1 Toorak Handicap, but excitement surrounds Melbourne's only chance to see glamour mare More Joyous before she attacks the Cox Plate. Carrying 2KGs more (60) than she did winning a stronger edition two years ago should hold no qualms for More Joyous. Not even the expected wet track should halt her performance (as long as its not too Heavy.. then maybe look elsewhere). Glass Harmonium and  Solzhenitsyn look the only dangers, but in reality they'll be battling out the minors.

Race Seven - Caulfield Guineas

1.Pierro – 8.Let Go Lenni – 2.Epaulette – 3.All Too Hard

Pierro wins, that much we know. Wet/Dry, Leading/Swooping, Four legs/Three legs... well lets not go that far, but you get the point. The real interest for me surrounds the 2nd and 3rd placings. Let Go Lenni ran a tough 2nd behind Epaulette at only his third start, and natural improvement should have him right in the finish. All Too Hard has been a little disappointing since turning three, but the talented colt could bounce back and be right in the finish.

Race Eight

6.Dance With Her – 9.Excluded – 8.Exceptionally – 2.Gatewood

I will not be betting in this race, let me make that clear. I suggest finding the most attractive female you can find, ask her favourite colour, and match it with the silks of a horse in this race. If you must follow me, then Dance With Her is ultra consistent and ultra tough. At her last 2400m start she ran a gallant 2nd to Lights of Heaven who Peter Moody rates as his best Caulfield Cup chance (the $13 is very enticing). Excluded is talented... but frustrating. Exceptionally will be closing hard late and has a touch of class. Best of the imports looks to be Gatewood, but proceed with caution.

Race Nine

13.Classy Chloe – 4.Miss Marx – 3.Detours – 14.Serene Star

As with the last race, throw a blanket over 15 of them. My brother always back #10 in the last, so maybe do that..? But I digress.. I have always had a soft spot for Classy Chloe.. as her name states.. she has a touch of class. My only concern is barrier 1 late in the day, as by race 9, the track may be fairly chopped up. Miss Marx is drawn to swoop and has done nothing but impress this campaign. Detours rises in weight (up to 58kg) and may be vulnerable. Serene Star and Arctic Flight are musts for Quaddies and Exotics. 

Mornington (10/10)

Mornington

Race One

*1.Puissance De Lune – 3.Methuselah – 5.Quick Bond – 2.Aiglon

Race Two

4.Tanah Lot – 1.Verdant – 7.Viminx – 2.Crafty Cruiser

Race Three

3.Mabsam – 2.Jetta – 5.Champagne Ruby – 7.Timber Cat

Race Four

3.Al Aneed – 1.Edgewood – 8.Oh Susannah – 7.Maluti

Race Five

6.Transonic – 1.Papillon – 5.This Is Your Life – 3.Operation Twist

Race Six

8.Danyme – 2.Off And Laughing – 11.Stardom - 5.Princess Toshi

Race Seven

11.Honey Flower – 12.Scottish Queen – 8.Oriental Ruby – 3.Tackleberry

Flemington (06/10)

Flemington

Race One

6.Kuroshio – 8.Rockford – 10.Quest For Peace – 2.Dalton

Race Two

1.Jimando – 4.Philippi – 11.High Esteem – 2.Tatra

Race Three

2.Pronto Pronto – 13.Villa Splendido – 5.Swift Succession – 10.Super Cool

Race Four

2.Maluckyday – 6.Tanby – 8.Exceptionally - 5.Shenzhou Steeds

Race Five

10.Soft Sand – 1.Mosheen – 4.Shopaholic – 2.Raspberries

Race Six

5.Commanding Jewel – 4.Maybe Discreet – 1.Members Joy – 8.Cameo

Race Seven

3.December Draw – 10.Linton – 11.Green Moon – 4.Ethiopia

Race Eight

4.Bel Sprinter – 6.Mid Summer Music – 8.Sistine Angel – 2.Spirit Of Boom

Race Nine

*5.Fawkner – 7.Shadowfax – 9.Amah Rock - 11.That's The One